I've been waiting for this day, to see where $HIVE is compared to last week and $BTC as well, so let's get to it, see what we can expect next week.
One week passed since the monthly open, so there's not much to conclude here, till the candle closes. So far we have a doji, which means indecision and price is still inside the bullish gap that has been holding price hostage for ages. For 1522 days to be precise. What I wrote last week about what levels to watch is still valid, so you can check it here. We'll know more once the monthly candle is closed.
On the weekly time frame, price is slightly below mid range, if I count my dealing range from $0.1774 to $0.3006 and it is delivering from a bearish OB, confirmed last week, by the candle closing below $0.2429. The current candle is closing in around 12 hours, so anything can happen, but so far we have a bullish candle with a very small body.
In case the current candle closes without sweeping liquidity below $0.2204, this level will be confirmed as swing low, but again, only after the current candle close and can become a target in case of weakness. For bullish continuation, price needs to close above $0.2662, in which case the next liquidity pool is at $0.2844.
On the daily time frame, price is just about to touch mid-range. I'm a bit undecided here, whether to post such a detailed chart, because it can be confusing, but on the other hand, I'd like to give you all the levels to watch, so I decided to post this version, instead of a simplified one. Is this the right thing to do? Dunno, time will tell, or someone will let me know it's confusing. Anyway, let's see what we can expect here.
In case of weakness and a mid-range rejection, the levels to watch are
$0.2204, which can be considered as relative equal low as there's a low close to it at $0.2227, and $0.2166. In case we don't get a reversal there the weakness continues, then sweeping the lows at $0.1848 and $0.1775 is possible. We have a bullish gap there, which has been defending price so far, so I hope it does its job in case price revisits that level.
For bullish continuation, price needs to sweep liquidity above $0.2476, close above the gap and hold $0.2538, then $0.2699, $0.2784 and $0.2844. These levels are inside a bearish gap, which has already been rebalanced, price has gone above the gap twice already, but has never managed to close above it. In case price manages to close above it and hold, the next level to watch is the dealing range high at $0.3006.
On a more granular scale, the h4 chart looks good in my eyes. Price is at mid-range, but on its way up, just printed a lower high, retested the bullish FVG, which held price nicely. The sell side of the curve (the leg up) looks really good, apart from one bearish gap, there's not much to stop price.
Levels to watch at the upside are the swing high at $0.2476 and if the bearish gap does not stop price, then $0.2699.
In case price gets rejected here, I'm looking at $0.2333 and if we don't get a bounce there, then next could be $0.2306, $0.2227 and $0.2204.
$BTC has an interesting daily chart. Last week, price swept the lows I mentioned in my previous post, at $102,000, $101,333 and $100,686 and created a swing low at $100,350, which is our dealing range low now.
At the time of writing, price is slightly below mid-range and about to confirm a bullish order block (OB), IF price manages close above $100,827 and hold. We have a bearish gap above the mentioned level, which has been already rebalanced, but price couldn't close above it.
For bullish continuation, price needs to close above and hold $100,718, in which case $110,700 could be next and ATH after that.
In case of rejection here, we could retest the swing low at $100,350.
Big week next week, regarding the economic calendar. We have 3 red folder days and important data coming in on Wednesday and Thursday, but with the current evens on Geo-political level and an US president who likes to shock the world, you never know.
Remember, technical analysis is not about forecasting price, but about reacting to what price does.
As always, this is a game of probabilities, not certainties. Also please note, this is not financial advice, it's my view and understanding of the market.
All charts posted here are screenshots from Tradinview.
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